In 2022, the circumstances of the midterms parallel 2026, where inflation was elevated, consumers were griping, an overseas war was impacting gas prices and voters seemingly were poised to throw out the incumbent party from power in Congress. Yet, surprisingly, Democrats had a quite decent election, keeping the House loss to the GOP narrow and even picking up a seat in the Senate to retain control of the chamber.

A hidden factor in that election was that of those Biden voters of 2020 who disapproved of him, a significant percentage still backed the Democrats, despite telling pollsters that the economy and politics were terrible. This result kept what once were optimistic Republican gains to a minimum and it could happen in the reverse in 2026.

It's possible that most of those who voted for Trump in 2024, but now disapprove of him, may not like the circumstances heading into the midterms, but will nonetheless vote for Republicans, because 1) they did so in the past, 2) the tossup map is on Red terrain, 3) the flaws about Trump aren't transferable to those other candidates. So, what might have been a blue wave becomes a trickle and the GOP at least retains the Senate, potentially comfortably.

What is likelihood of such an outcome? How to reconcile with how 2026 is comparable to 2022? Are polls overstating Democrats support, particularly the crossover vote of red to blue? What is your prediction of the midterm results?