this one stopped me when i read it.
a few months ago doug ford was threatening to cut electricity exports to the united states as leverage in the tariff dispute. it made headlines. it was a whole thing.
now the IESO, ontario’s grid operator, has signed a deal to import 600 MW of american electricity this winter because ontario doesn’t have enough supply. the winter capacity auction also came up 75 MW short of its 1,200 MW target. and the price hit $725 per megawatt per business day, the highest capacity price ever recorded in ontario’s market. that’s from money.ca reporting this week.
so to be clear: ontario threatened to cut american power, then turned around and bought it because we need it.
this is the supply crunch i’ve been talking about for a while. pickering going offline for refurbishment, bruce units cycling through maintenance, demand growing from EVs and data centres faster than new supply is coming online. the grid is tighter than most people realize heading into this winter.
what this means practically is a few things.
the OEB sets prices based on a 12 month cost forecast. if actual winter costs run higher than what was forecast, the difference surfaces in future rates. so even though the november 1st rate numbers are set, the pressure on the system this winter could influence what the OEB does at the next adjustment.
the winter disconnection ban starts november 15th which means no residential disconnections for non-payment until april 30th. that’s worth knowing if you’re tight on bills.
and the OER dropped from 23.5% to 15.7% on november 1st. the CBC confirmed that for a typical 700 kWh household the rebate was worth $36 per month last year and is now worth $23 per month. that $13 difference is real and it’s going straight back onto bills even though the headline rates went down slightly.
the compounding picture here is that ontario is importing american power at record prices, the rebate cushion got cut, and winter demand is about to spike. for homeowners who have been sitting on the fence about solar or a heat pump this is probably the winter that makes the math undeniable.
genuinely curious what people are planning to do about their heating bills this winter. anyone switching plans, making upgrades, or just hoping for a mild december?