r/bourbon • u/OpenPourWhiskey • 1h ago
Does Expensive Bourbon Taste Better? What 39 Blind-Tasted Reviews Say
TL;DR
Across all 39 of my reviews, a little, and past $100 it gets a lot less predictable. Three expensive bottles that scored under a 5 are most of the reason. Without them, price explains 60% of the difference in my scores instead of 19%. With them, the lesson is that paying $90 or more raised my odds of a great bottle but didn't protect me from a bad one. Nothing under $60 scores an 8, and most of the bottles that do are hard to find at MSRP.
The launch post promised a scatter plot showing where the sweet spots are. Those charts are on the reviews page now, so I ran the numbers on all 39 reviews. I definitely thought there'd be a trend where spending more gets you higher quality. There is one. I'm surprised it's not as dramatic as I thought it was. Then I ran it again without the three bottles that sit farthest off the trend. Both runs are below, and so is what those three bottles are telling me, because all three are expensive.
Oh and caution... there is math below. Proceed at your own risk.
How I Counted
Quality is each bottle's Quality score. Price is the MSRP listed on each review, never a shelf price. That's 39 bottles and one palate. I also buy my own bottles and do my homework first, so there aren't many low scores here to begin with (how I score) as a result.
The Numbers by Price
| MSRP | Bottles | Average Quality | Lowest to highest | Average Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $35 | 6 | 5.1 | 4.0 to 6.3 | 6.5 |
| $35 to $59 | 10 | 6.5 | 5.0 to 7.8 | 6.1 |
| $60 to $99 | 16 | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 5.7 |
| $100 and up | 7 | 7.1 | 2.3 to 9.2 | 4.4 |
Quality climbs up to about $100 and then flattens out. Value goes the other way.
The Regression
A straight line through all 39 bottles says every extra $10 buys about 0.13 points of Quality. Price explains about 13% of the difference between my scores.
A curve fits better. Each time you double the price, Quality goes up about 0.9 points: the fit predicts a 5.5 at $25, a 6.4 at $50, a 7.3 at $100 and an 8.2 at $200. Price explains about a fifth of the difference between my scores that way. Take out the $275 Master's Keep and it still holds.
So there is a trend, but most of the difference between my scores isn't explained by price.
More Spread at the Top
Past $100, I see more variability. I'm more likely to get a really good bottle, but some of my least favorite whiskeys are $100 or more too. Five bottles on the site score under a 5, and three of them cost $90 or more: Woodinville 8 Year Straight Rye (2.3, $130), Booker's By the Pond (3.5, $100) and Old Elk Rum Cask Finished Rye (4.9, $90).
I don't know if that's because things are more experimental at that price, whether there's more finishing, or whether it's higher age, and sometimes I really don't like higher age. Of those three, one is finished (the Old Elk, in rum casks), one is an 8 year rye, and one is a barrel proof Booker's.
I think part of it is that the good ones are pushed up against the top of the scale. As soon as you have a couple of 9s under $100, it's going to look like there's a lot of range. But the bottles up there are all 8s and 9s, which is a phenomenal score, but you end up with scores somewhat unable to differentiate themselves.
Why I Ran It Again Without Three Bottles
Those same three bottles sit farther below the curve than anything else on the site. By the usual outlier tests, the Woodinville and the Booker's land far off the curve, and they pull on it harder than any other bottle. Take those two out and the Old Elk lands far off it too. Take all three out and no other bottle does, so that's where I stopped.
The three aren't mistakes. Those are my real scores for those bottles. The reason to run it again without them is that three bottles shouldn't decide the shape of a line that's supposed to describe 39. The second run answers a narrower question: what does a typical bottle at a given price score for me?
The Master's Keep is the one other bottle the tests point at, and it's a different case. It never lands far off the curve. It pulls on it because at $275 it's so far out on price. Once the three low bottles are gone, the curve expects close to a 10 at $275, and the Master's Keep's 8.7 holds it down. That's the top of the scale again: a curve can keep climbing, and my scores can't. Taking it out would make the trend look even steeper, about 1.5 points a doubling, so I left it in.
Without the Three Outliers
These are the same numbers on the other 36 bottles.
| MSRP | Bottles | Average Quality | Lowest to highest | Average Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $35 | 6 | 5.1 | 4.0 to 6.3 | 6.5 |
| $35 to $59 | 10 | 6.5 | 5.0 to 7.8 | 6.1 |
| $60 to $99 | 15 | 7.3 | 5.5 to 9.0 | 5.9 |
| $100 and up | 5 | 8.7 | 8.5 to 9.2 | 5.7 |
Quality climbs at every step now, past $100 included. The $100-and-up bottles go from the widest spread on the site to the tightest, 8.5 to 9.2. Value still drops as the price goes up, just more gently.
| All 39 bottles | Without the three outliers (36) |
|---|---|
| Quality for every extra $10 (straight line) | +0.13 |
| Share of the difference price explains (straight line) | 13% |
| Quality each time the price doubles (curve) | +0.9 |
| Share of the difference price explains (curve) | 19% |
| The curve's prediction at $25 / $50 / $100 / $200 | 5.5 / 6.4 / 7.3 / 8.2 |
Without those three, price explains 60% of the difference between my scores instead of 19%, and each doubling buys about 1.4 points instead of 0.9.
Taking out your lowest scores will always make a trend look cleaner, so treat the 60% as a best case. The fairer check is a different kind of fit that uses all 39 bottles with nothing taken out, and goes by the median so a few extreme bottles can't drag it around. It lands at about 1.3 points a doubling, close to the 1.4 without the three. So the middle of the trend holds up either way. What the three bottles change is the bottom of it.
What the Three Outliers Are Telling Me
All three are expensive, and I can't just set that aside. Of the 10 bottles I've reviewed at $90 or more, seven score an 8 or better and three score under a 5. Not one lands in between. Under $90 it's the other way around: 24 of 29 bottles land between a 5 and an 8, three score an 8 or better, and two score under a 5. Cut it at $100 instead and it's the same shape: five 8s and up, two misses, nothing in the middle.
So paying more raised my odds of a great bottle, but it didn't lower my odds of a bad one. If anything the misses got more common: three of 10 at $90 and up, against two of 29 below it. And the expensive misses cost more. Old Grand-Dad Bonded (4.0, $25) and Benchmark Bonded (4.1, $17) are my other two scores under a 5, and they still score 5.1 and 6.4 on Value. The Woodinville, the Booker's and the Old Elk score 1.0, 1.0 and 2.5.
Three bottles is a small number, so some of this could be chance. If my five scores under a 5 were spread at random across the price range, three or more of them landing among the 10 most expensive bottles would happen about one time in ten. The empty middle above $90 is a much stronger pattern than that.
That's what I said further up: past $100 I'm more likely to get a really good bottle, but some of my least favorite whiskeys are up there too. The second run tells you what a typical bottle at a price is likely to score. These three tell you what can go wrong when you spend $90 or more on something you haven't tried.
Draw the Line at $50
If you draw the cutoff at $50, you're going to see a difference. The 8 bottles under $50 average a 5.2, and none of them scores higher than Wild Turkey 101 at 6.3. The 31 bottles at $50 and up average a 7.0, and the 28 left without the three outliers average a 7.4.
The cheap bottles win on Value, though. Wild Turkey 101 and Evan Williams Bottled in Bond share the best Value score on the site, 7.8. The budget blind has those two head to head.
What an 8 Costs
When you start talking about an 8 or above, I would be willing to pay quite a bit more. Not that it necessarily costs that much more. None of the 16 bottles under $60 scores an 8. Five of the 16 from $60 to $99 do, and so do five of the seven at $100 and up. Without the three outliers, that's five of 15 and all five. The cheapest is the Holladay at $75.
| Bottle | Quality | MSRP |
|---|---|---|
| Holladay Soft Red Wheat Rickhouse Proof (Oct 2024) | 8.2 | $75 |
| Still Austin Red Corn Bottled in Bond | 9.0 | $80 |
| Weller Full Proof Single Barrel | 8.5 | $85 |
| Elijah Craig Barrel Proof Private Barrel | 8.0 | $90 |
| Four Roses Single Barrel Barrel Strength OBSQ | 9.0 | $90 |
| Heaven Hill Grain to Glass Rye | 8.5 | $100 |
| Penelope 18 Year American Light Whiskey | 8.6 | $100 |
| Found North Snow Day | 9.2 | $110 |
| Blanton's Straight From the Barrel | 8.7 | $165 |
| Wild Turkey Master's Keep Triumph | 8.7 | $275 |
Proof Might Matter Too
Proof might matter as much as price. The 11 bottles above 100 and up to 115 proof average a 7.5, and the 18 at 100 proof or under average a 6.0. But the stronger bottles also cost more ($91 on average, against $53), so I can't pull the two apart with 39 bottles. Without the three outliers it's 7.8 against 6.2, with the same problem: $91 against $49.
Good Luck Finding Them at MSRP
Most of the bottles in that 8-and-up table are really hard to get your hands on. Master's Keep Triumph, Blanton's Straight From the Barrel, Found North Snow Day, Still Austin Red Corn, Weller Full Proof. The Holladay is probably the exception, since it's actually available. Four Roses barrel strength single barrels are around in some ways, but it can still be hard to track down the right age and the right four letters.
So even the cheaper ones can cost you more. Still Austin Red Corn is really hard to find in a lot of markets. I think I got really lucky when I got mine, and paying $80 for it is probably not the case. Found North Snow Day was a limited release, and I think on secondary it's probably double or triple what it was.
So yes, the MSRPs are lower than I thought they'd be for an 8 or a 9. Good luck getting most of them at MSRP. Why that is, and what I'm willing to pay over, is in how not to get ripped off on bourbon.
Palates Are Subjective
That's the biggest thing. What someone else is willing to pay a lot more for, I won't be. At the end of the day, you buy what you want.
This is only the bottles I've reviewed so far. As I keep going, I'll keep reevaluating and updating it. And if your palate agrees with mine, you'll probably be happy to keep reading.
I write these up at openpourwhiskey.com and post them on Instagram. Not sponsored. Please drink responsibly.