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u/Procrasturbating 2d ago
My productivity will drop a bunch, but I kinda miss writing code by hand some days.. usually when I am thinking about my children’s prospects in the future.
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u/Mateorabi 2d ago
As an experienced engineer it helps/accelerates me while I can still review for quality. I am afraid of how we create new experienced devs from the juniors though.
Either we force them to be inefficient and do things by hand till they learn and are given the good tools, or we need to find a way to use the tools while still having them gain good experience/skills/intuition.
I think a culture of forcing jr devs to UNDERSTAND what the tool gives them is needed. Don’t accept slop, ask the AI to explain itself so you ALSO learn.
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u/tacticalpotatopeeler 2d ago
Unfortunately most companies are unwilling to allow the time for this. Work done? Ship it. No time to learn.
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u/sisisisi1997 1d ago
The trick is that the learning comes before work is done. You should understand every commit you make, so if something seems weird or hard to understand, you should either get to an understanding of why it's done that way or discard it before it ever touches git.
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u/tacticalpotatopeeler 1d ago
Yeah except then you get negative review from your manager when everyone is merging multiple commits a day or whatever and you’re going slower because you’re trying to learn as you go so your commits don’t land as quickly.
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u/ligma_then_sugma 17h ago
sounds nice when you're shithead boss isn't breathing down your neck about whatever stupid dogshit work they're ignoring too
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u/JuanAr10 2d ago
I wonder how post-bubble-burst will be… how much would a Claude subscription cost? At least the same Fable level?
Will they cost the same but be shit dumb??
What kind of crap will vibe coders produce??
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u/blorgono 2d ago edited 2d ago
It'll probably be both, AI investments are purely circular and based on infrastructure that doesn't exist yet, so the bubble bursting (wich before anyone says it isn't going to happen, ask every economist currently alive) would cause massive downscaling and rising of prices to try and make their companies profitable.
Of course AI and specially local models won't dissapear overnight. But I imagine a lot of the corporate opinion on LLM'S will worsen, leading to a bigger push for legal restrictions and such, limiting local models. This is even more probable when you take into consideration stuff like copyright and all of the leaks that have been done with Claude coding.
Not to mention that every small AI company not on the same level of Openai or Anthropic will go bankrupt.
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u/access547 2d ago
Can I ask why it won't pop? I don't really know anything about economics
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u/razor_train 1d ago
Politically friendly platforms absolutely will get bailouts. It's just a matter of which flavor of authority is in power once the AI economy starts to falter.
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u/bremidon 2d ago
He is saying it will, but his reasons are a bit sketchy. His big one at the top is an appeal to authority. "The priests said it is so, therefore it is so." They may have good reasons. They may be just reading tea leaves.
The thing about bubbles is that they are only a bubble after they pop. Sometimes it *is* a bit obvious beforehand, but take the Internet bubble of 2000/2001.
The main reason it ended up blowing out is that even though massive amount of main fiber optic lines had been laid across America, there was little effort and little enthusiasm to get the private houses onto it. This was what everyone was betting on and it is what did not occur. If millions of houses *had* gotten on the fiber optic networks earlier, who knows what would have happened. It might have popped anyway. Or the main thesis of all the businesses scrambling to be the first online might have paid off and sent things soaring even higher. Who knows. That's the thing with bubbles: you don't really know they are one until they pop.
If you are looking for a real indicator, watch what happens with the IPOs. So far, they have been good, which means investor sentiment is strong. The most interesting weak point is OpenAI moving their IPO to next year. Are they a little worried about investor sentiment?
When an anticipated IPO for AI launches and does not hit its target, then you will know that the party might be over. Right now I do not see it.
Why people talk about it here so much is that they think it will answer their prayers. It will not. It will make things worse for developers. We are not going back to how things were; that ship has sailed and is long, long gone. If the bubble pops, then AI control will centralize, every business will *still* use it as their primary coding tool, because even if it were 10x more expensive than now, it will be cheaper than hiring a developer, and the ability to use it privately will become more expensive. That means anyone not already working with AI at work will be cut out.
The only bright spot there is that we already have a pretty solid free source movement for AI which is hot on the tail of the premier pay models. So that might keep things from getting too expensive.
The other bit that everyone here is upset about is how expensive hardware has gotten. The forces driving costs up right now are never going away. However, the market is already reacting; it just takes a few years for things set into motion now to actually become apparent to us. The bubble popping might help here on a mid-term basis. Short-term, nothing will change, and long-term, whatever delay a bubble introduces will evaporate. But it might give a window of opportunity to pick up hardware cheaply for a few years.
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u/opotamus_zero 1d ago edited 1d ago
That's not what happened in the 2000/2001 dotcom bubble at all. Home delivery petfood was raising hundreds of millions of dollars in VC. It was obvious for months before the crash happened.
It had absolutely fuck all to do with fiber or tech - this was an excuse made after the fact. A lot of money was wasted in an attempt to capture markets. The exact same thing has happened with AI. Capitalists do not want to compete - they would rather crash the economy.
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u/bremidon 1d ago
Incorrect.
It is as simple as a bet being made that a market would exist in X years, and it turning out it needed X+10.
That is part of a market economy. People make investments in what they believe the future will look like and sometimes they are wrong. The great thing about the market is that it corrects itself fairly quickly.
But let's try not to turn this into a political debate or a rant against a boogieman. Sometimes lots of people make the wrong call and when it corrects, people call it a "bubble". When it pans out, then people call it genius.
That is all.
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u/opotamus_zero 1d ago
sure bud. Hold on to those Beenz you'll get it all back someday
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u/bremidon 1d ago
So you think the world's move toward AI is comparable to... checks notes... Beenz?
Interesting example, because it actually makes my point rather nicely.
Beenz failed. So did countless other internet businesses. But the internet itself went on to become vastly more important than even many of its early investors imagined.
And Beenz is particularly amusing as an example, given that the broader concept of internet-native digital currencies eventually produced Bitcoin. Imagine investing equally in Beenz and Bitcoin when each launched. You'd have lost everything on Beenz and made a fortune on Bitcoin.
Which is precisely my point. Investors make bets on what the future will look like. Sometimes they get the timing wrong. Sometimes the business model is wrong. Sometimes the entire premise is wrong. And sometimes they're spectacularly right.
The difficulty is knowing which is which *beforehand*.
You apparently think pointing to a failed internet startup settles that question.
It actually rather nicely illustrates it.
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u/ligma_then_sugma 17h ago
Not to mention that every small AI company not on the same level of Openai or Anthropic will go bankrupt.
this has already happened p much
post covid saw many many "AI startups" that were just claude/gpt wrappers
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u/Beldarak 21h ago
My guess is the bubble burst will only hit some aspects of LLMs, while not affecting others.
Useless/harmful stuff like video or image creation should be hit the most as they serve no real purpose. They don't make any money afaik, only cost.
Coding agents, they're too useful, they already serve a real role so I don't see them disapear or becoming too pricey as I don't think they need to evolve much more. The output is already really good, no need to train more appart from keeping up with the coding technologies.
Chat bots. Not quite sure. I'm surprised they're not already full to the brink with ads. I think they'll survive but in a full-enshitifcation mode. "Here's your meal receipe : <receipe>. I'd recommend <particular brand of wine> to go with it, you can buy some at <a particular shop near your house>, and for the kids, some delicious Coca-Cola™ (try out their new banana flavour!".
Again, I'm shocked they didn't do that yet...
Just my future predictions anyway, for what it's worth^^
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u/ICantBelieveItsNotEC 2d ago
Realistically, it'll cost exactly the same. Inference is already (very) profitable; the expensive part is training new models - that's what will probably slow down/stop when the bubble pops.
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u/UnkarsThug 1d ago
One way or another, It will cost more for the same reason Netflix keeps costing more, because they can increase prices, so they will maximize profitability.
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u/john_the_fetch 2d ago
I got into programming to solve complicated interesting problems with logic. I miss the "hunt" to solve the puzzle. I've been having to get my fix in other ways.
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u/SillySpoof 2d ago
If honestly love to go back to hand coding. Now I would be like 10 times slower than everyone else at the company if I did so it’s not really viable, but if everybody stopped using ai I could.
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u/bobbymoonshine 2d ago
Well given that “if they remove AI” is no longer a possibility given where local models are at, not really sure why the other guy thinks he’s in a better position
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u/Shot-Data4168 2d ago
He doesn't. The job market is a living hell right now.
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u/ErmingSoHard 2d ago
Dw, all the senior devs here will say unemployment is exaggerated or not caused by AI. While all the laid off devs and could-have-been juniors are somewhere else in trade school
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u/john_the_fetch 2d ago
I know 2 could-have-been juniors. It's been hell for them for years. Even before Ai was a thing. Not sure why it was. Maybe just flooded? but they had to eventually get jobs outside of their CS degree.
And My company hadn't hired a new Jr Dev in a while. We had one round of layoffs in 2023ish and didn't want to do it again so we just slowed down on new projects and didn't hire like we did before.
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u/regrets123 2d ago
Post Covid layoffs into ai layoffs. Game dev is also in shambles
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u/lovecMC 2d ago
Game dev is mainly in shambles because they over hired during covid on top of already having very sought after dream jobs.
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u/regrets123 2d ago
Have you worked in gamedev? How many game dev interviews have you been to these last 3 years? Covid ended 2022 in most countries. That’s 4 years ago, the market should have corrected.
It has not.
Still around 7-8k positions lost per year to layoffs/studio closures.
That’s just Covid? Yeah, not convinced. Ai is in all tech industries CEOs want same output for less workforce.0
u/bremidon 1d ago
Well that, and they let politics infest their companies and their products. This being Reddit, I am going to assume many people here like their politics; however, this should be a hint that trying to introduce politics into your business is a losing deal with very few exceptions.
So they ended up spending too much time worrying about some message or about saying all the right things, burnt too much time on things that most gamers really did not care about at all, and then made Pikachu faces when the bloated games hit the market and bombed.
You only get to do that so many times before the whole corroded mess gets dumped.
And if investors have the feeling that the entire industry is infested with this, the money dries up permanently.
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u/The_Real_Slim_Lemon 1d ago
What senior dev is saying unemployment is exaggerated? We know the industry is screwed, but with juniors not being trained anymore, roles for experienced devs should be safe for a while.
It’s anecdotal evidence, but I get messages from recruiters almost every week asking if I want to take up their job offer
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u/OkTop7895 2d ago
But local models works well enough?
Some Llamas are a few GB of RAM but a Gemini needs Hundreds of GB of RAM. Some GPTs pass 1 TB of RAM.
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u/aghastamok 2d ago
My company has already spun up its own hardware and we have an entirely local agentic setup.
It's kind of the best of both worlds; It's never going to be the "bleeding edge" style frontier-quality coding agent, but we'll never get priced out or locked out.
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u/Narfi1 2d ago
I don’t think the goal is to run it on your laptop, even though I’m sure it will be possible soon enough. But for a company, even middle sized, it’s starting to not be a bad idea to host it yourself
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u/Bomaruto 2d ago edited 2d ago
What is considered midsize differs, but while I've heard the idea discussed at my company, actually running LLMs on our own hardware doesn't at all sound financially viable.
There is also the idea that we can train it on our own data which is a terrible idea if you look at most of our codebase.
EDIT: Where it actually makes sense to run on your own hardware is anyone dealing with cyber security which doesn't want to be told no by the big providers when trying to actually secure their own systems and you want to make sure that no data can leak to a 3rd party.
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u/Lopsided-Regular-997 2d ago
It doesn't sound financially viable yet.
Remember AI companies operate at a loss rn, and are trying to capture the market.
Once the war is settled, and the prices are jacked, it will make financial sense.
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u/UnkarsThug 1d ago
The prices I'd compare against are Amazon Web hosting token costs, (particularly of Chinese models), because those aren't operating at a loss at this point, and their AI offerings have been profitable.
You have to keep in mind, the vast majority of spending is in training. Once you have the model, it's pretty cheap to run.
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u/raralala1 2d ago
In my mind it feels like it never will, my previous company is so cheap that they think of hosting their own github, like comeone just pay the freakin 100$. I would think at most the AI subscription will be 100$-200$ for the pro version, so it still is not worth it. Unless you are at FAANG size.
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u/Mal_Dun 1d ago
Where it actually makes sense to run on your own hardware is anyone dealing with cyber security
Not only security. Privacy and secrecy as well. In my job I do consulting from time to time. Most people who ask about local LLMs have to handle sensitive data and everyone knows you can't trust big tech with that.
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u/freia_pr_fr 2d ago
Yes it's pretty good. I have GLM 5.3 Flash , Qwen 3.8 Flash Next, or Deepseek V4.1 Flash 1017. It requires a pretty costly computer, such as a Mac Studio Ultra, but it works.
I still don't use them for coding, but I could.
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u/darthjammer224 2d ago
I'd argue you should give it a try before you really say that.
Qwen and similar models are really cool and impressive. But the quality / speed of codling and engineering tasks is, understandably, still miles behind what Claude code can do on your PC.
Like a large enough difference I still don't trust it to work on my little personal notes app that Claude and I work on all the time.
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u/freia_pr_fr 2d ago
Yes I regularly check the well known benchmarks and I have a personal shitty benchmark as well.
Qwen 3.8 27b, the small one, is about the same than Claude from early 2026. And deepseek v4.1 flash is about the same than Claude from the late spring.
You can survive with those.
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u/darthjammer224 2d ago
Hmm.
My concern is less around the intelligence of the model and more around the local compute not being enough to run the models fast enough or well enough to be useful over just coding yourself.
Not necessarily that they cannot do it at all. Just that if I wanted to start a project with as much preloaded files and context as I do with Claude I'd be waiting so long on an answer I don't believe it's be useful.
I may even start with enough pre loaded files and context to blow past the 120k or so context window in like two chats
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u/cusco 2d ago
Companies now provide an allowance like 2k monthly on Claude for their devs
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u/darthjammer224 2d ago
Yeah, right up until they figure out the devs using 2k a month on Claude aren't making (their salary + 2k) a month worth of more productivity. It's not going to last haha.
My copilot agent is used by my small team, runs the opus 5.5 model, and uses a couple hundred bucks in tokens a month. If these devs are really using 2k a month I have to believe they stopped doing any and all work themselves and offload their entire job to Claude.
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u/Yashema 2d ago
Highest grade standard consumer machine you can buy is a $5,700 Mac M-Ultra, which can load the 128B and 196B models (highest end released models), and maintain 128K contexts, but it's token generation rate is about 5%-10% of the cloud models.
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u/darthjammer224 2d ago
I get that, but I run a 8gb vram GPU and 64gb ram on my tower, and I have serious doubts about any company ever using ram offload.
Loading llm models into ram is so abysmally slow and useless, I'm convinced you would get less done asking an AI to do work for you if it's loaded into ram just because of all the downtime between prompt and answer.
Take my company for example, we use copilot since we where already in the MSFT ecosystem anyways, and copilot does that whole "your enterprise data is safe with us" thing. However accurate that actually is, idk.
They would absolutely NEVER switch to running a local LLM if it was offloaded to ram, that shit takes forever.
They'd only wanna switch to something comparably fast to respond as copilot. I can only imagine that needs multiple extremely good Adreno series GPUs to get even remotely close to "fast answer generation" (entire model loaded into VRAM instead of normal ram)
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u/narrill 2d ago
Maybe I'm just sleep deprived, but I'm not sure why you're talking about offloading? The comment you're responding to was about Macs, which have unified RAM.
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u/darthjammer224 2d ago
That would be entirely due to me not knowing they do that.
Interesting!
Although I looked it up and the unified ram is still significantly slower for llms than loading a model into VRAM on a discrete GPU
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u/ParanoiaComplex 2d ago
Based on the token rates achievable from the unified RAM, it’s only like 1 degree off and you can achieve at least 10s of tokens a second
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u/narrill 2d ago
The difference is not anywhere close to off-loading. For text completion an M5 will still hit 10+ tokens per second even on large models, which is good enough for most cases.
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u/darthjammer224 2d ago edited 1d ago
The only thing I said in that most recent comment was it's not nearly as fast as a model loaded entirely into VRAM.
You seem to have corroborated that with the whole 10+ tokens a sec part, that's kinda a lot slower than loading into VRAM. But yeah still quite a bit better than offloading (not saying a lot, offloading is unusably slow), and something I didn't know apple was up to.
I can't see any company picking the slowest option with the least software compatibility for their ai devs. I haven't seen a Mac at work, well, ever actually, in any of my jobs. (VPs, PMs, and Graphic designers don't count lol)
If we're talking conversational, sure, I can't read 10 tokens a second worth of words, if we're talking development, it's not worth it.
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u/narrill 17h ago
Well, yes, a business wouldn't use a mac for this because the value of a mac in this regard is affordability, and businesses have the money to spend on more powerful hardware that's shared efficiently between all their developers.
This is why the comment you originally replied to was talking about consumer hardware. Consumers aren't running 120B+ models locally on anything but a mac, because an equivalent non-unified rig capable of running models that size would cost tens of thousands of dollars.
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u/UnkarsThug 1d ago
I have the same amount of memory/VRAM, and I'm a bit confused. I feel like ram offload is plenty fast. It's the thing that convinced me that my setup actually is good enough for projects, is being able to run at least somewhat competent MoE models using ram at speeds which are reasonable. It's not frontier, but it's not going to be.
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u/john_the_fetch 2d ago
Is llamas the new nomenclature? I want this to be the new way to refer to LLMS.
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u/OkTop7895 2d ago
Llama is a family of LLM and AIs by Meta that are open source and are very small compared to GPT and Gemini Family this make the Llama Models more suitable for running in local home devices.
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u/bobbymoonshine 2d ago
Yeah you can do decent enough work with a distilled model like a quantised Qwen 3.8 27B which only needs 12GB VRAM and 32GB RAM
Like a Mac M2 Ultra can run it just fine, sure that’s not cheap, a few thousand dollars even before the RAMpocalypse, but it’s a one time only cost
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u/itzjackybro 2d ago
You'll need a beefy PC to run a local model, for one. All I have is this wimpy iGPU.
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u/Snauser 2d ago
Why would these companies keep giving out these models for free tho
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u/UnkarsThug 1d ago
In my opinion, Chinas doing it because the US is probably their biggest economic adversary right now, and we're in an AI bubble, so offering competent publicly available AI stands a chance of crashing that bubble.
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u/bobbymoonshine 2d ago
They’re not, Chinese labs are distilling them and releasing them as open source, as well as training their own.
The government of China is sponsoring that because they recognise that having the world vendor-locked to a handful of American companies in bed with American politicians would be a global security disaster.
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u/Snauser 1d ago
Okay that still doesn’t answer my question, how and why would China keep doing that for free after we all switch to local models and they have majority control over the market?
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u/bobbymoonshine 1d ago
Because they have a significant economic and ideological stake in no private corporation cornering the AI market, particularly when that corporation would be a non-Chinese one.
And in a world where everyone is using Kimi or Qwen, well, that’s a world where the EU has an economic incentive to fund Mistral, or America has an incentive to fund Llama and Gemma, etc etc. Nobody wants to turn their digital sovereignty over to a foreign power.
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u/Snauser 1d ago
Okay but i’m trying to look further into a future where we only use local models. Will they stay free? Will China keep using tax money to subsidize these free models? Or will they start licensing the models? Is it sustainable in any way?
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u/bobbymoonshine 1d ago
Well the thing with open source models is that they can’t go away. They might stop getting better so quickly, if funding for improving them drops, but they’re never going to not be available as long as there’s such a thing as an internet. They’re open source. You can’t put them back in the bottle. So to loop back, the thought that vibe coders will be in trouble if “they remove AI” is an impossible one.
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u/Snauser 1d ago
If funding dries up and the model stops updating, it becomes a frozen in time. Meanwhile programming languages, APIs, and frameworks constantly change.
In a year or two, that frozen model will start spitting out deprecated, broken code for modern setups. Experienced devs can fix that on the fly, but vibecoders will be completely stranded. Having the model forever on the internet doesn't matter if it's too outdated to use.
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u/scp-NUMBERNOTFOUND 7h ago
It depends what ur doing. U can code a cli tool with C from 20 years ago and it will work just fine.
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u/TheEmperorA 1d ago
Nobody would use Chinese ai cloud services anyway. If they crash few American companies and hurt his biggest competitor economy by developing free models then why not
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u/Soprelos 1d ago
China doesn't need money, they want power and influence. Look at TikTok, those algorithms are already heavily influencing today's youth across the world. The Chinese government will bankroll AI indefinitely because it is the future and necessary to maintain status as a global superpower.
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u/Glass-Tadpole391 1d ago
Well they are open weight rather than open source but yeah- funny enough communism here feels like a dystopian Robinhood.
Big company steals from human work, even bigger company steals from company that stole from humans and gives back to humans (kind of)
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u/ItsSadTimes 2d ago
Eh, more or less. If you know how to learn, you can always learn new things. But if your skills are defined by the latest AI model and they stop putting out new ones, your source of information will eventually stagnante if no one is training new models on new data.
Yea you'll always have your local models, but how long will they remain competitive?
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u/bio_datum 2d ago
Yeah, I'm like cool I have GLM on my home PC and can rent compute if needed. I'll probably pass up other vibers who don't feel comfortable doing that kind of thing. And if AI gets better...I'll use the better models?
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u/Burasta 2d ago
Nobody realizes that "Vibe Coder" is actually a temp job, and another name for it is "AI Training Specialist"
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u/One_Guidance_2412 1d ago
Wait, vibe coder actually get a job?
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u/LuigiWasRight447 1d ago
Have you looked at job postings recently? Atleast in my area so many are looking specificaly for vibe coders
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u/Aggressive-Band-1276 1d ago
You mean people who barely know what they are doing, and have no experience in even looking at code have better job aspects than someone who went to university for programming?
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u/LuigiWasRight447 1d ago
I wouldnt go that far but i have seen postings looking for people to use only AI to generate code. Maybe they require you atleast understand the output but as far as i understood it using only ai in programming is vibe coding
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u/blue-brindle 1d ago
My productivity will decrease sharply, but managers will be forced to accept less productivity if AI tools become inaccessible, so I'm not too worried. I've gone through periods in my career of not coding that much before and always managed to pick it up really fast after the hiatus. Plus when I'm just starting out a project I write my own code, to keep it somewhat fresh
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u/DT-Sodium 1d ago
The actual truth they need to hear is "You haven't built anything, you asked a third party to do some work for you and just because said third party happened to not be a person does not mean you get to claim credit for the result."
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u/moonshine_is 1d ago
unless it is full of bugs, in which case you are responsible.
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u/DT-Sodium 1d ago
Well yeah, kind of like the owner of an aggressive pet.
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u/moonshine_is 1d ago
We're on the same side. I agree that the human hasn't built anything. But the human is responsible for either result, failure or non-failure.
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u/darthjammer224 1d ago
I think that if someone truly did hours upon hours of documentation, planning, architecture, etc and simply let an agent do the grunt work, it'd be fair to say "I architeched this solution".
And also agree with both of your points.
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u/Arclite83 2d ago
"Everything" is "in trouble" as AI gets "better".
In the past, we have not done "the same with less" - we have done "more with more". This is another industrial revolution style event. There will be a LOT of jobs building all this out over the next century - just different jobs than there were before.
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u/okram2k 2d ago
Industrial Revolution might have been a net positive after it ran it's course but life was pure hell for the masses during it.
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u/PhatClowns 2d ago
Thank you. I’m convinced this is just a canned take trickling down from VC suits, it’s so historically illiterate and naive and it always drives me crazy when I see it.
For most jobs in history that get vaporized by progress, the system employs far fewer people than it replaces. Those jobs, too, are almost always at a barrier to entry that is unattainable for most whose jobs were automated.
Most get thrust into generational poverty. Of those left, most still were fortunate enough to completely abandon ship, effectively starting over, often at a lower wage. Only a rare, lucky few stay to become part of their new industry.
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u/MagoDopado 2d ago
How come the world is the most populous, most educated, and least poor now than ever then?
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u/PhatClowns 2d ago
I’m not sure if you actually read what I said or if you completely misunderstood my point. The issue we’re describing is the economic devastation that happens between “I lost my job to automation” and “I’m finally back on my feet again,” not that no progress was made. If no progress was made at all, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
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u/donaldhobson 20h ago
> Industrial Revolution might have been a net positive after it ran it's course but life was pure hell for the masses during it.
Industrial revolution factory work, while it sucked by modern standards, wasn't worse than the per-industrial peasant farming.
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u/tingulz 2d ago
The big difference here is that it will affect every job in every industry at the same time. We’re going to be in massive trouble if we don’t find a way to distribute wealth to everyone not just the greedy fucks building out this stuff.
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u/OrionThe0122nd 2d ago
AI in robotics is not even nearly on the same level as LLMs right now.
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u/Due_Common4534 1d ago
You have no idea, so much ground was covered in last year. And if LLMs will have good level of intelligence and generalization an universal robot seems like next step, because we can even now just plug them in. I have no idea how long it could take. But with all honesty if AI replaces most computer jobs It should be able to think through the steps to do tasks in real life.
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u/born_to_be_intj 2d ago
This time it completely different. The other revolutions increased jobs because intelligence wasn’t commoditized. That’s the one thing humans have historically offered in the job market. Even with manual labor the intelligence is in the way you manipulate your physical body to get tasks done. For now AI has almost completely commoditized intelligence-based jobs that only interface with a computer. Once robotics and computer vision catches up, even manual labor will be out the window.
This is not like a regular technology revolution. For now it looks similar, but if AGI actually becomes a real affordable thing, the future is going to look radically different.
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u/Indignant_d 2d ago
What happens when you reach a point where a new job is created but humans and AI are both capable of doing the new job? What happens when a new job emerges and an AI can do it better/cheaper?
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u/Arclite83 2d ago edited 23h ago
If you carry this out to it's absurdist end, yeah sure. And that's not soon, because for all the bullish attitude and legitimate power this is, it has limits.
You either get a utopia or a dystopia - given humanity it'll be the latter, with anything that CAN be made easier for all (power, food, water, idk) going to the former. The "rising tide of tech raising all ships" sort of thing.
Billionaires claim it'll be a new era of plenty, while they build bunkers and private island strongholds. We'll see.
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u/LoudounCounty703 3h ago
Those limits are going to vanish quickly. The infrastructure for it is already largely in place... the ethical/political strategy is the only one late to the table because that's how it goes... We're only going to know how this truly plays out by taking the ride and hopefully using our best judgment.
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u/Hefty-Distance837 2d ago
Pro-AI people are really weird.
They claim that AI will bring an true post-scarcity era and the concept of money will become old, but all we can see is their "I created this tool in 3 days so you should pay $10 per month to me for using it!".
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u/UnkarsThug 1d ago edited 1d ago
I feel like that's a bit of a goomba fallacy. There's multiple groups of people, some of whom want everything to be open source, so they open source everything, and some of whomever are trying to profit off of anything.
I think very few people who work with AI are trying to grift off of selling things. It's just that the people selling things are advertising loudest.
For a lot of AI projects where I've just made something/had something made (often a bit of both because sometimes it's easier to do something yourself, sometimes it's easier having Claude do it, especially if it isn't a security concern), it's literally just been that I wanted a thing, so I tried to find the easiest way to make it. I didn't even post it to github, until I needed a way to install PWAs to my phone and GitHub pages works well for that.
I had other projects on there already, to be clear, but my overall experience with AI is shaped by the easiest path being to just make a custom version of the app sometimes. I don't care if anyone else wants it, I won't refuse it to them, but I wouldn't sell it, because it already reached the target audience of one.
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u/DrMobius0 1d ago
Historically things tend to go poorly for people who aren't necessary for those in power. I'm sure it will go differently this time with a bit of wishful thinking.
Luckily AI is an endless financial pit except for the folks selling picks and shovels. So it will only crash the economy temporarily and make collateral of the working class as it does.
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u/Educational-Plant981 1d ago
"I created this tool in 3 days so you should pay $10 per month to me for using it! instead of the $200 per month you have been paying someone else."
ftfy
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u/Ursine_Rabbi 2d ago
There is no reason to believe an AI revolution will play out the same way the Industrial Revolution did.
During the Industrial Revolution there was massive incentive to expand production. The worth of owners was directly tied to how much they produced and sold. Short term drops in revenue could be taken to pave the way to higher long term margins.
Today the opposite incentive is in place. Everybody’s retirement is tied directly to the stock market. Taking an action you know will drop your company’s stock price is a violation of federal law. Quarterly profit is infinitely more important than long term sustainability. A drop in quarterly profit to prepare for greater long term growth means investors pull out, stock price drops, real spending power for stockholders diminishes drastically as they have less value to hedge against their loans. It’s in the best interest of everyone with the power to make decisions to “do the same with less”
Just expecting everything to play out the same as it did before is negligent. The end goal is absolutely to destroy as many jobs as possible with no plan to replace them.
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u/Arclite83 2d ago
... You do realize all these AI companies are running deeply in the red right now? The spend is on, full force, to move this needle. This is a very bullish time
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u/YeetYourSkeet 2d ago
Unless AI can do 100% of a persons job, AI will just morph what that job entails. Maybe programmers will move towards designing frameworks rather than writing the actual code.
Businesses will always see productivity growth as a way to cut jobs. But naturally, the economy will adapt and new jobs will be created due to the new tech. E.g. when the internet was created nobody would have expected there would one day be influences and community managers as a legitimate, livable job.
This tech may be more disruptive and rapid than previous revolutions, but the economy will adapt in the same way.
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u/BenignPharmacology 2d ago
The thing you’re missing is that if AI can do 92% of a person’s job, then a company can fire 90% of that role, and keep 10% on as middle-managers. Thats exactly what’s happening in tech- my job now is spinning up agents on 5ish tickets at a time, reviewing, polishing, redirecting when needed, and then working those tickets through the review and deploy pipeline.
The reason there are ten thousand AI startups right now isn’t that they think they can fully replace all, idk, sneaker salesperson jobs, or whatever. But if they can make a system that replaces even 80% of them, then the store could be staffed by a single employee.
If you think I’m making any aspect of this up or exaggerating , just look at self-checkout. It’s been the model since long before AI even entered the arena. 1 regular employee to supervise 5-10 automatons. It doesn’t have to be 100%, I would put the threshold at like low 90s.
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u/NamtisChlo 2d ago
What jobs will it create that will be more than the jobs that are lost?
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u/Aozora404 2d ago
Do you think that, when steam engines were first made, they could predict a good chunk of humanity would work in front of screens and make spreadsheets for a living?
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u/Due_Common4534 1d ago
Dude you are in a wrong time period. Or do you think that AI will cause so much change as if going through the last 200 years of human civilization. btw the engineers did know people that made living by filling spreadsheets they were known as computers. They were semi-replaced by people using mechanical calculators, witch lead to cheaper calculations so more computation was done. I don't know about the net job lost at the time, but I think it was slightly negative. But then computers(analog (sine waves) old and digital old but newish with electricity) appeared and replaced all computation jobs, computers could do everything that computers could faster and cheaper. But they needed a specialized mathematician to function. Now computation was so cheap, that we wanted to do many times more of it, so more jobs operating computers and computers were needed. Something interesting happed we found new ways to use computers so more jobs and computers were needed and so on until the positive feedback loop stabilized. AI doesn't have this positive job creating loop, that doesn't mean that AI can't create new jobs, but it will most likely not be as dramatic as the electric semiconductor computer was.
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u/FlakyTest8191 2d ago
That's cool of you don't need a job for the next 10 years while things get figured out. During the industrial revolution factories went up in flames because people were hungry, and those new jobs didn't exist yet or were very few.
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u/dsm4ck 1d ago
I think it could be more like the quartz crisis for Swiss watch industry
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u/gesocks 1d ago
Swiss watch Industrie still came out on top at the very end, cause of the small scale it was possible to fill a niche with premium products.
Now we talk about the whole industry of everything. We can not come out on top by producing over expensive handmade stuff wenn all the human labour industry is what is in crisis
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u/Bomaruto 2d ago
I only outsource my personal hobby projects to Claude, actual work is best done with a lot more control.
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u/FailureOfTheFamily 22h ago
As long as everyone doesn't have neuralink connected with AI, we're safe. Our bubble where everyone can create apps with ai is very small compared to whole population
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u/dcondor07uk 2d ago
I am afraid the first in line are the people who are doing programming for a living, hobby slop kind of benefits from AI.
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u/Beldarak 21h ago
It's truly awesome for hobby slop. A lot of personal tools I could technically code but that I don't have time for, now I can make them in an evening.
They're usually a one-time done kind of job with maybe some very minor support over the years so yeah, perfect case for an agent. It's local only so no need for security.
Regarding my day job, I'll do my hours no matter what. If AI fails and I have to code all day again, I'll code all day. If LLM continue to be the norm and I have to prompt all day, I'll prompt all day, it's just a job, who cares. We're creating and displaying boring ass wheres-the-money tables anyway, it's not like our jobs are truly important outside of the corporate world.
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u/HuntKey2603 2d ago
"if there remove AI" yeah we're also in trouble if they remove computers or electricity.
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u/CMD_BLOCK 5h ago
“If they remove AI” lol. LOL. LMFAO.
“If they remove the economy” bro do you hear this guy I’m fuckin crying
Bro thinks unironically there’s a bubble the gov will allow to burst 😂😂😂😭😭😭💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦🪦
Fuckin Gen Alpha hasn’t woke yet
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u/grandalfxx 3h ago
Bro you need to calm down thats not what this post about at all. You sound insecure as shit that someone had the mere thought a billionaire you dont know might lose some money. Like godamn the emoji spamming is pathetic.
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u/XBLAH_ 11h ago
"they remove AI"? Are we gonna pretend there aren't good open weight models?