I assigned electoral votes based on the US’s system giving the number of deputies + 3 senators per state. This gives a total of 594 electoral votes and 298 to win (I messed up on the map). This means that Bolsonaro would win because he takes more states, especially in the Southeast, by smaller margins compared to Lula’s enormous margins in the Northeast.

Important caveat though, Brazil caps the number of deputies a state could have at 70, which reduces São Paulo’s electoral votes by 40, as it should have 110 deputies in a proportional system. Those 40 seats/votes are distributed among the other states. So it’s possible that this system would use the proportional distribution, but that wouldn’t make too much of a difference here, Flavio would net about 15 votes.

Link to interactive map: https://www.nexojornal.com.br/grafico/2026/10/25/voto-presidente-exterior-2-turno-2026

Source

Source to navigate

EDIT

You can change the state abbreviations at the end of the ".ghtml" for more in-depth navigation. Use the abbreviations from the map like /rj.ghtml

Source https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/26/world/americas/brazil-election-results-maps.html

Source: CloseCall’s House forecast, built from public polls and past results (pollsters’ own releases, state election offices, the FEC and the Census Bureau). I made it.

The colours run from Solid D to Solid R by each side’s chance of winning, gold is a toss-up, and hatching marks seats forecast to change hands.

The live version is interactive, so you can tap any district to see its forecast and polls. There’s also a free game where you pick the close races against your friends: closecallelections.com/forecast/house

EDIT: the Great Lakes and Missouri issues from the comments are fixed on the live site. Thanks all

i am working on doing all of asia.
full version at anita.garden/asia1meng !

As sources I used mostly Wikipedia, Poreklo and Ravnoplov, I know everyone who does not think that this is true will say propaganda but all it takes is search and dedication and you will find that more than 95% of these are correct.