r/CFBAnalysis • • 20h ago

Week 8 recap for my model: 36-20, tied for 5th among the computers on the Prediction Tracker

5 Upvotes

I've been running my own college football model this season (Fourth & Data) and figured I'd share how Week 8 went, good and bad.
On the 56 FBS games the Prediction Tracker graded, it went 36-20. That tied for 5th out of 45 computer models. The best anyone did was 37-19.

Model
Week 8
Mine
36-20
ESPN FPI
35-21
Sagarin
34-22
Computer average
33-23
Vegas closing line
33-21

A few things that stood out:
Close games carried it. In games where the model had the favorite at 70% or less, it went 20-9. That's usually where it struggles, so I'll take it.
It disagreed with Vegas on 5 games and went 3-2. Army, Kansas and Virginia Tech hit. Tennessee and NIU didn't.
The big miss was Iowa. I had them at 82% and they lost at Minnesota. Five of the AP top 11 lost this week, and the model didn't see most of that coming either.

Long story short college football is hard to predict lol


r/CFBAnalysis • • 21h ago

RPR Ratings - Week 9

3 Upvotes
  1. Miami
  2. Ohio State
  3. Indiana
  4. UCLA
  5. Texas
  6. Utah
  7. Notre Dame
  8. LSU
  9. Alabama
  10. Georgia
  11. BYU
  12. Kentucky
  13. Houston
  14. James Madison
  15. Wake Forest
  16. Texas Tech
  17. Florida
  18. New Mexico
  19. Ole Miss
  20. Arizona
  21. Wisconsin
  22. Northwestern
  23. Cincinnati
  24. North Dakota State
  25. Oregon

Full ratings can be found here (listed under "Current Season")

Rating methodology: calculated based on 3 components: win percentage, strength of schedule, and score ratio.

Win percentage (25%)

SOS (50%) - calculated in similar method to RPI, independent of team's record. Results vs non-FBS teams calculated into a placeholder value for formula.

Score Ratio - team's points scored vs total points scored in their games.