Hi everyone!
I am writing a novel about a catastrophic societal collapse caused by a pandemic which destroys peoples’ ability to read and write, and want to make it as realistic as possible. Specifically, I have a character who is an epidemiologist with the CDC and I want to know more about how her job would work, what her priorities would be, the attempted institutional response, etc.
So, some context: the virus is a mutated strain of chickenpox / VZV. Already highly contagious, but this mutation is far more dangerous because 1.) it has a longer incubation period (4 - 6 weeks), 2.) it has an even higher R-0 (maybe 5-6), and 3.) in almost all cases, it causes a focal encephalitis after the first few days of symptoms. The virus targets the Visual Word Form Area and other parts of the brain associated with literacy. I’m not a neurologist, but the areas would be, as far as I can tell, the angular gyrus and parts of the left temporal-occipital lobe? I think?
The initial symptoms are similar to a flu: fever, severe headache, photophobia, as well as a stiff neck and some neuropathic pain. This is the prodrome period, which persists for a few days, and then develops into confusion and delirium, olfactory and right-side visual hallucinations, right-side motor weakness and loss of control, focal seizures, (usually) transient aphasia, and permanent alexia with dysgraphia (loss of ability to read and write).
Young people and children are more often spared the encephalitis, though they can still get sick. A handful of people are genetically immune, largely due to overactive immune systems, which have their own side effects (chronic brain inflammation, specifically). Generally the virus itself doesn’t kill its hosts, unless their immune systems are already compromised. The deadly part is the secondary social effects.
The virus, with its long incubation and high transmission rates, spreads silently around the world via air travel before symptoms begin, and by the time they do, it’s already everywhere. As far as I can tell, this would rather efficiently cause a catastrophic meltdown of society within a month, because our entire civilization is based on the written word. Take that away, and the systems we would use to even summon a response begin to collapse very quickly.
I think the very first signs in the US that bring it to the attention of the CDC are an air-traffic controller (working sick) suffering the encephalitis symptoms (a collision is narrowly avoided), and a truck driver (also working sick) crashing and causing a massive pileup, but surviving. Rapidly, similar cases start to pile up all across the country.
As far as I can tell, the CDC’s first move would just be trying to figure out what the hell this thing is. They’d perform spinal taps on the patients, and probably find out pretty quickly that it’s a strain of VZV. The problem is that a.) by the time severe symptoms start, antivirals won’t do much, b.) for every person showing symptoms there are likely thousands of asymptomatic carriers, so containment is basically a joke, to the point that the people in the CDC offices themselves may already be infected, and c.) the tools they use to organize a response all involve writing, which is rapidly going to erode.
So, you’re an epidemiologist working for the CDC. How do you attempt to respond, even if that response is, ultimately, futile?
I'd also love to hear any other feedback, thoughts, questions, or critiques of this concept!
Thanks so much!